Bitcoin2026-09-30 07:37:20CryptoQuant says BTC rebound has lost direction for now, but trend reversal is not confirmedCryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin’s rally from roughly $76,000 on Sept. 17 to $87,000 on Sept. 27 pushed the share of supply in profit from 65% to a peak of 73.8%. That figure later slipped to about 72% as of Sept. 29, still below the long-term average of 76%. At the same time, Adler said the fast and slow lines of the Bitcoin Impulse Performance indicator both fell to 0 on Sept. 29 and 30, while BTC held near $83,000. In his view, momentum returning to zero suggests the current rebound has temporarily lost directional strength, but it is still too early to call a trend reversal. He added that a clearer sign of market weakness would emerge if the indicator moves into negative territory and the share of supply in profit starts falling again.230
Bitcoin2026-09-28 08:36:57Darkfost says Bitcoin STH MVRV has climbed to its highest level since November 2025Bitcoin’s short-term holder MVRV ratio has reached its highest reading since November 2025, according to analyst Darkfost, who said the move followed a break above the group’s cost basis near $73,100. He said market momentum strengthened noticeably between August and September after that level was cleared. The current STH MVRV stands at 1.15, which indicates that short-term holders are sitting on an average profit of 15% and that the market value of their holdings is now above their realized value. Darkfost said the level warrants close attention because it could lead short-term holders to act, especially by taking profit. The metric tracks the ratio between market capitalization and realized capitalization for this cohort and is often used to gauge whether recent buyers are in profit or under pressure.310
Bitcoin2026-09-26 08:30:58Analyst says adjusted MVRV shows Bitcoin has entered a bull market phaseCryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said an adjusted MVRV signal now points to Bitcoin being in a bull market phase. According to his reading, the ratio between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages of adjusted MVRV first crossed above its own 365-day moving average on Aug. 20, marking the start of an early bull phase when Bitcoin traded at $71,255. That phase lasted 31 days, during which Bitcoin rose 13%. Adler added that on Sept. 20, the ratio moved above the 1.0 baseline, a level he said indicates the short-term MVRV average has overtaken the annual average. At that point, Bitcoin was priced at $80,691, which he described as the market’s transition into a bull phase. He said the ratio currently stands at 1.018, with Bitcoin at $84,156, and that the bullish structure remains intact as long as the reading stays above 1.0. Since 2012, this is the sixth transition from an early bull phase to a bull market phase under the same framework. In the previous five cases, four ended with prices above the level seen at the start of the bull phase. The only exception was in August 2015.260
Bitcoin2026-09-26 07:24:09Analyst says Bitcoin has entered a bull market as adjusted MVRV ratio moves above 1.0Bitcoin has moved into a bull market phase based on an adjusted MVRV signal, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. He said the ratio between the 30-day and 365-day moving averages of adjusted MVRV first crossed above the 365-day average on Aug. 20, when Bitcoin was priced at $71,255, marking an early bull market stage. On Sept. 20, the same ratio rose above the 1.0 baseline, with Bitcoin at $80,691, which he described as the point where the market entered a full bull phase. The ratio now stands at 1.018, while Bitcoin is trading at $84,156. Adler said the bullish structure remains intact as long as the ratio stays above 1.0. He added that this is the sixth transition from an early bull market stage to a bull market since 2012.270
Bitcoin2026-08-27 12:36:57Bitcoin Realized Cap Impulse Turns Positive After 93 Days Below ZeroBitcoin’s Realized Cap Impulse has moved back above zero after 93 consecutive days in negative territory, marking its first positive reading and signaling a reversal after what the report described as the longest capital contraction cycle since the 2022 bear market. The indicator tracks momentum in Realized Cap while incorporating Bitcoin supply and price factors to measure whether economically meaningful token flows are expanding the market’s capital base. Data cited by ChainCatcher showed the metric crossed the zero line on Aug. 20 when BTC was trading around $73,000, and it has remained positive for eight straight days. During that stretch, Bitcoin rose about 8% to roughly $78,900. The latest reading stood at 0.198, below the local peak of 0.226 recorded on Aug. 26. Historical comparisons in the report pointed to strong rebounds after similar late-bear-market signals in 2015, 2019 and 2023, while also noting that comparable positive flips in 2018 and early 2022 did not lead to an immediate sustained uptrend.940
Bitcoin2026-08-27 07:12:54CryptoQuant says two Bitcoin profit-loss metrics turned higher over the past 10 daysCryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said two Bitcoin profit-and-loss indicators reversed at the same time over the past 10 days, pointing to an improvement from the market’s August lows. The 90-day realized profit/loss ratio moved back above 1 for the first time since late July, reaching 1.003 on Aug. 26. Over the same period, the share of unrealized losses fell from 18.57% on Aug. 16 to 7.35%, a drop of about 60% and the lowest reading since May 11. Adler said losses no longer dominate the market, but stressed that the latest reading sits almost exactly at break-even and still needs confirmation. He also compared current conditions with the 2022-2023 capitulation phase, when the ratio stayed below 1 for 241 days and fell as low as 0.368. Based on the current data, he said the market remains some distance away from the kind of deep capitulation seen in that earlier period. Both indicators suggest holders’ financial conditions have improved sharply from the August trough, though a stronger signal would require the realized profit/loss ratio to stay above 1 and unrealized losses to remain low.860
Bitcoin2026-08-13 04:06:52Bitcoin Faces Two-Month Resistance at Short-Term Holder Realized Price, Trader WarnsIn a post on X, trader Murphy (@Murphychen888) said the realized price for bitcoin's short-term holders — defined as coins held for less than three months — is currently around $67,900. Since June 20, bitcoin's bounce near that level has been repeatedly suppressed, with the resistance now persisting for nearly two months. The slope of the cost curve has also flattened to near zero, suggesting that the turnover of related coins is steadily declining. Murphy noted that similar patterns appeared in late bear markets in 2018 and 2022, when BTC was capped below the three-month realized price for roughly three months before the BCH hash war and the FTX collapse led to sharp price swings. He believes the prolonged suppression under this cost line may reflect a structural weak balance in the market — any external force could break it.1300
Market Analys2026-08-07 01:56:11Robinhood Chain DEX Volume Slumps 72.5% From Peak as On-Chain Metrics Hit RecordsRobinhood Chain's latest on-chain data shows a sharp divergence: its decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume has tumbled 72.5% from a peak of roughly $878 million reached on Jul 11 to $241 million on Aug 1, according to BlockBeats. While DEX volume has cooled, other metrics on the network are setting records. Daily transaction count hit an all-time high of 13.3 million on Aug 5, total value locked (TVL) reached $433 million on Aug 6, and stablecoin supply peaked at $597 million. The volume slide was not a broader market trend. Global DEX trading volume rose from $5.27 billion to $7.33 billion in the same period, while Robinhood Chain's share of that total fell from a peak of 16.65% to 4.32%. The data also shows a sharp decline in average per-trade DEX volume, from $105.56 on Jul 13 to $27.82 on Aug 4, a drop of 74%, before ticking back up to $39.07.1940
